A’s Offseason, part 2 of ?
The signing of Esteban Loaiza marked the first time the A’s have signed a free agent EVER! Ok, that’s actually completely false, but it feels like it. The last time the A’s signed someone that cost them a draft pick was Mike Magnante in 2000, I believe. Magnante was past his prime at that point, but over 3 seasons gave the A’s 123.2 innings for 4.00 ERA pitching, which is reasonable enough, but not spectacular.
Loaiza, on the other hand, may be a fairly good deal. He signed for 3 years and $21 million, which, after the AJ Burnett signing, looks like a modest investment. He’s 34, and has been somewhat inconsistent over his career, and pitched well in the best pitcher’s park in baseball last year, but has significant upside. He’s shown extended periods of brilliance, such as his 2003 campaign with the White Sox. He went 21-9 with a 2.90 ERA that year, finishing second in the Cy Young voting.
Here are his ratio totals for the past 3 seasons together:
(this is compared to the league averages, so less than 100 is below average, and more than 100 is above average.)
K K/9 BB BB/9 K/BB ERA AVG
112 112 125 124 140 111 100
The Bill James Handbook, which is a must have if you want to know anything about baseball statistics, provides this projection on Loaiza. 236 IP, 168 K, 66 BB, 4.26 ERA. That’s based on a complex formula that looks at the players career stats, and weights the last few years a little heavier than just straight career averages. I think there’s a good dose of magic involved, too.
In any case, if Loaiza puts up those kind of numbers, he would be a strong addition to the Oakland rotation, in the number 5 spot. Number 5, you may ask? Zito and Harden are obviously the top two (you decide which is which), followed by Blanton, who for two entire months last season was arguably the best pitcher in the American League, and then Haren, who posted an ERA of 3.73, and was above average in every statistical category, relative to his league.
Loaiza would likely be a #3 pitcher on the majority of MLB staffs, and to have that caliber pitcher in the 5 slot is a luxury. Combined with the A’s very strong bullpen, it’s my slightly biased opinion that the A’s will have one of the top 3 pitching staffs in the AL, if not the best.
You can debate all day long whether a quality number 5 pitcher is worth $7 million a year over 3 years, to a guy that will be 37 when his contract is up. Considering the inflated market that sprang up this winter, and the plethora of starting pitchers the A’s now have to possibly deal this summer, it looks like a good move. For now, I’ll give Billy Beane a A- on the trade. I like it, but I have my reservations.