The Pastime

There are a few major projection systems out there that all claim to be the best. They all present plausible theories and evidence that they’re more accurate than the others. PECOTA seems to have risen to the top, but it’s still just one system.

I decided to stop trying to figure out which one to use, and just use four of them at once.

After importing all of the data into a spreadsheet, I unified it to produce one projection for a player. I figure it’s better to have four experts reach a compromised consensus on how something will turn out, than to rely on just one or another. We’ll see how it turns out at the end of October.

I used PECOTA, ZiPS, CHONE and the Bill James projections. The number of resources available is listed under the “# systems” column, and is reflected in the shade of the hitter’s line. The darker the line, the more sources it’s derived from.

You might notice that all the players listed are A’s. Sorry to fans of other teams out there, this was kind of a time-consuming project, I’m not going to go through every team. I might add a few teams, or highlight select players in the future.

If you’d like to see the data I’m working with on a spreadsheet, leave a comment or send me an email. I’d be happy to share my work. I might post it on Google docs if there’s some interest in that. I don’t want to share it too freely, though, since it includes BP’s newly released PECOTA data, which they’d really prefer people pay to access.

Also, pitcher projections will come later today or tomorrow…

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 16th, 2007 at 4:39 am and is filed under Oakland A's, Players, Stats, Stat Graphics, Projections. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.