The Grand Unified Projection: Pitchers
When such a baseball mind as Bill James rejects the notion that pitchers can be projected, it carries some weight. In fact, if you look at the correlation percentages for some top systems, I think you’d agree that it’s, at best, an iffy proposition:
Hitters PECOTA .736 BIS/James .685 ZiPS .684 CHONE .677 Pitchers ZiPS .459 PECOTA .451 BIS/James .445 CHONE .424
It’s pretty plain to see that while projecting hitters can be done at a reasonable 67-74%, pitchers are well below that at 42-46%.
Nevertheless, I’ll plow right on ahead with my unified, unweighted pitcher projections.
| Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | # systems | |
| Name | INN | BB | K | WHIP | ERA | |
| Blanton,Joe | 191 | 57 | 109 | 1.40 | 4.42 | 4 |
| Braden,Dallas | 54 | 23 | 38 | 1.48 | 4.64 | 1 |
| Calero,Kiko | 56 | 20 | 57 | 1.23 | 3.38 | 4 |
| Casilla,Santiago | 48 | 22 | 41 | 1.43 | 4.58 | 3 |
| Duchscherer,Justin | 70 | 17 | 57 | 1.20 | 3.41 | 4 |
| Dunn,Scott | 82 | 41 | 65 | 1.47 | 4.35 | 2 |
| Embree,Alan | 51 | 15 | 41 | 1.30 | 4.17 | 3 |
| Flores,Ron | 48 | 21 | 38 | 1.41 | 4.12 | 4 |
| Gaudin,Chad | 94 | 38 | 62 | 1.44 | 4.37 | 4 |
| Halsey,Brad | 110 | 37 | 61 | 1.43 | 4.53 | 4 |
| Harden,Rich | 131 | 54 | 122 | 1.28 | 3.53 | 4 |
| Haren,Danny | 207 | 49 | 160 | 1.27 | 4.01 | 4 |
| Italiano,Craig | 81 | 58 | 63 | 1.85 | 6.24 | 1 |
| Kennedy,Joe | 65 | 24 | 43 | 1.43 | 4.24 | 4 |
| Kohn,Shawn | 73 | 23 | 54 | 1.31 | 4.18 | 2 |
| Komine,Shane | 108 | 40 | 60 | 1.48 | 5.05 | 3 |
| Loaiza,Esteban | 177 | 50 | 111 | 1.40 | 4.55 | 4 |
| Marshall,Jay | 69 | 18 | 32 | 1.39 | 4.54 | 2 |
| McBeth,Marcus | 58 | 28 | 48 | 1.48 | 4.76 | 3 |
| Meyer,Dan | 81 | 34 | 55 | 1.56 | 5.56 | 2 |
| Muessig,Adam | 36 | 20 | 31 | 1.56 | 4.63 | 1 |
| Olsen,Kevin | 48 | 18 | 22 | 1.52 | 5.01 | 1 |
| Pettyjohn, Adam | 77 | 30 | 42 | 1.49 | 4.77 | 1 |
| Ramirez,Erasmo | 53 | 9 | 25 | 1.30 | 4.58 | 1 |
| Ray,Jason | 94 | 74 | 64 | 1.87 | 6.23 | 1 |
| Robertson,Connor | 63 | 28 | 53 | 1.46 | 4.18 | 2 |
| Saarloos,Kirk | 112 | 44 | 49 | 1.56 | 5.03 | 4 |
| Shull,James | 98 | 25 | 72 | 1.38 | 4.79 | 1 |
| Street,Huston | 67 | 17 | 62 | 1.11 | 2.89 | 4 |
| Tadano,Kazuhito | 87 | 27 | 59 | 1.46 | 5.59 | 1 |
| Thompson,Derek | 96 | 54 | 72 | 1.55 | 4.97 | 1 |
| Windsor,Jason | 144 | 48 | 100 | 1.40 | 4.44 | 3 |
| Witasick,Jay | 48 | 24 | 40 | 1.48 | 4.33 | 4 |