Round-table: Part One
I’ve asked a few friends of mine to weigh in on five questions that I think are on the minds of Oakland fans this season. I’ve also asked them to respond to one question about the current state of the game as we know it.
Their responses were nothing short of fascinating, and I can’t thank them enough for agreeing to participate.
I’ll be posting the questions and responses in a six-part series. Here’s part one.
—–
Today’s panel consists of:
Jeff Sackmann, the creator of Minor League Splits, the master of Brew Crew Ball, the captain of Beyond the Boxscore, and a contributer to The Hardball Times and Heater Magazine.
SwizStick, of Condition Oakland, one of the top few Oakland sites out there. It’s also one of the longest-running ones, dating back to 2004.
Professor Oakland, who oversees the lab at Operation Athletics, and brings his unique style and analysis to the operating table every day. He remains Professor Oakland, as he says.
HollywoodOz, who runs Notes from the Nat, a simply outstanding blog about the Vancouver Canadiens, the short-season class A club affiliated with Oakland.
baseballgirl, from Athletics Nation. I have to confess, I consistently enjoy reading her front page stories more than any other author of AN. Sorry, Blez, Nico and louismg…
Becca the Bullpen Baker, who runs the light-hearted and delicious Bullpen Baker MLBlog. It’s one of the only baseball websites that actually makes my mouth water.
Sal Baxamusa, a well-tenured member of Athletics Nation and an author of The Hardball Times. He also happens to be a chemical engineering graduate student at MIT.
Marc Normandin, the founder of Beyond the Boxscore, a contributer to Heater Magazine, and a regular author of Baseball Prospectus.
Ken Arneson, who writes Catfish Stew for the Baseball Toaster family of blogs. I’ve admired Ken’s writing for a while, and his photography is nothing to sneeze at, either.
Tyler “Blez” Bleszinski, the founder of Athletics Nation, and the guy behind all of those wonderful SBnation blogs.
—–
In your opinion, what is the key factor that the A’s season will hinge on in 2007?
—–
Jeff Sackmann: Health. Specifically: Rich Harden’s health. While there are plenty of 5th starter types on the staff to fill in if and when a front-line guy goes down, they are just that: 5th starter types.
It’s one thing to replace Joe Blanton with Brad Halsey; it’s yet another to slot Halsey in for the ace. Harden proved in 2005–at the ripe old age of 23–that he could be a very special pitcher. If he does what he did in 2005 over 30 starts, he’ll be one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball. Not even Billy Beane can insure against the loss of that.
SwizStick: In a word: pitching. With the loss of Barry Zito, Harden must remain healthy - and productive - for a majority of the season, if not the entire season. Joe Kennedy, despite pitching so well out of the bullpen, is a downgrade compared to Zito so the A’s really need Harden to step up and stay healthy.
Another solid season from Dan Haren and improvements from Joe Blanton and Esteban Loaiza and the A’s could be looking at another post-season run.
Professor Oakland: While I think the offense will improve, the A’s success will hinge upon the starting rotation. Besides Dan Haren, I can’t say that I’m sold on the staff.
Rich Harden has to be healthy and curb his walks, while Joe Blanton must tame a lineup the second time around. I’m note sure what to expect from Esteban Loaiza or Joe Kennedy. Some fans prefer Kirk Saarloos as the fifth starter, but if that happens, the A’s will have an all right-handed starting rotation, so I think Kennedy will get every opportunity to snatch that spot to keep other teams from stacking too many left-handed sluggers in the lineup.
HollywoodOz: Winning. But assuming you’re counting that as a given, I’d say pitching. Zito will be missed, but only to a point - Harden will need to stay healthy, Loaiza will need to stay good, Haren is probably the one guy I don’t have two minds on, Blanton will need to be a real #4 (or better), and Kennedy will need to show he’s got the guts for a long outing.
That said, there is some depth there, and there’s no reason a Saarloos or Windsor or Komine or Gaudin or Halsey couldn’t burst out of spring training in top gear and push for a rotation place. We can probably cope with one starter down for an extended period with minimal pain, but if Harden gets injured again and Loaiza sucks again (both are better than average odds of happening), it’ll be a long season.
A lot of people will say hitting, especially power, is going to be the thing we need, and there’s no doubt we do - I just tend to think that with Nick Swisher, Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby coming back from injuries/illnesses/whatever the hell, and with Mike Piazza stepping in, you can probably expect the team to cover for the dingers lost when Frank Thomas packed up his rebar and chased his thirty pieces of Canadian silver.
Bullpen Baker: Definitely my oatmeal, cherry, chocolate chip, and pecan cookies. They’ll take us all the way!
Seriously, though, with so many changes in the coming season (losing Zito, Thomas, and Washington and a changing of the guard with Geren), I think it’s hard to pinpoint one key factor.
If I had to choose one, though, it’d probably be Rich Harden’s ability to step into Zito’s shoes, pitch consistently well throughout the season, and remain injury-free. If this doesn’t happen, we’re dead in the water, and other smaller issues such as our unnamed 5th starter, black-and-blue infield, and a new DH won’t even matter.
Sal Baxamusa: Health. The Oakland A’s need Rich Harden to make 30 starts and Bobby Crosby to play in 140 games. While Kirk Saarloos and Marco Scutaro are credible backups, any appreciable playing time for them will torpedo the A’s chances at an AL West title.
There is, however, a good chance that none of that matters.
The Angels are loaded with premium prospects, and if Howie Kendrick breaks out this year the Angels may have just enough offense to complement their stellar pitching. The Rangers have made some very good under-the-radar moves this offseason, acquiring Frank Catalanatto and Kenny Lofton on the cheap to shore up an offense that struggled (taking into account park factors) last year. Their pitching is getting better, too, and if Brandon McCarthy can get his home run rate under control they’ll have a viable front-end of the rotation in Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, and McCarthy. Even a healthy A’s team may not be able to compete in 2007.
The other thing that the A’s have a lot of offensive upside: imagine if Bradley, Swisher, Chavez, and Piazza hit for an 850+ OPS, Crosby, Dan Johnson, and Mark Ellis average 800, and Kendall and Kotsay keep their OBPs up. It’s a lineup without any monsters but solid and deep.
On the pitching side, too: If Haren continues to pitch well, Harden makes 30+ starts, Blanton and Loaiza are league average, and Kennedy doesn’t embarass himself, they’ve got a very good staff. Their bullpen is already stellar. This could be a very good team if a lot of things go right simultaneously. The problem is that fans of a lot of teams, including the Rangers and Angels, can say the same thing.
The problem is that a lot of things would have to simultaneously go right, and that’s not a good way to plan for the season.
Marc Normandin: Considering their fairly average offense will be missing Frank Thomas in 2007–who was worth just over 4 wins with the bat by himself in 2006–the Athletics are going to need to keep more runs off the board than the 727 of last year. This can be done if Rich Harden stays healthy for most, if not all, of the season, but losing out on Barry Zito’s 2006 production will sting a little, especially if Harden goes down.
The rotation looks to be Harden, Haren, Loaiza and Blanton, with either Kennedy or Halsey filling out the back-end. It’s a bit top heavy, and the offense may not be enough to carry Blanton or whoever the fifth starters ends up being through the year.
baseballgirl: One player: Rich Harden. Losing Barry Zito hurts the A’s most noticeably in innings pitched. Zito was a solid starter who never missed a turn in the rotation. From all accounts, Rich Harden has better stuff than Zito ever did, but the A’s do not need him to be Johan Santana to win; they simply need him to replace Barry Zito.
With a rotation of Harden, Haren, Blanton, Loaiza and a nominal fifth starter, the A’s should be able to win some ball games. Of course, there is the problem with losing about half their offense in Frank Thomas, and since I don’t see them making another offensive move before the start of the season, the pitching needs to at least equal last year’s, if not better it.
Ken Arneson: The letter H. Health, Harden and Haren. Offensively, without a Frank Thomas-caliber bopper in the lineup to carry the team, the quality has to be spread throughout the lineup. You can get by with Eric Chavez playing with no arms and one leg for three months, or play without Milton Bradley and Mark Kotsay for two months, as long as there’s still a big star to shoulder the load in the middle of the lineup. They can’t overcome that again this year. They need to make up for the loss of Frank Thomas with better health.
On the pitching side, the A’s cannot lose either Rich Harden or Dan Haren for any extended period. If either one goes down…yuck. Blanton, Loaiza, Kennedy, and Halsey. I don’t mind having one or two averagish starters like that at the back of the rotation, but I can’t see four guys like that hanging with Lackey, Jered Weaver, Bartolo Colon, Kelvim Escobar, and Ervin Santana very long.
Blez: I think you’d have to really be clueless to not say health. The A’s have been injury ravaged the last two years and they absolutely must have health this year. They also need several players to finally become more than they’ve been so far to this point in their careers. Swisher needs to take that next step forward. Dan Johnson needs to prove he isn’t a AAAA player. Bobby Crosby has a ton of detractors and he needs to show that he’s the adequate replacement for Tejada most of us thought he was a few years back. And Rich Harden needs to prove he isn’t made of glass.
May 7th, 2007 at 7:06 pm
[…] Today he posted Part One of his round table, where you can find my humble answer amongst the others. From reading everyone’s answers, it seems the common consensus is health, primarily Rich Harden’s, and pitching. […]