The Pastime

I’ve asked a few friends of mine to weigh in on five questions that I think are on the minds of Oakland fans this season. I’ve also asked them to respond to one question about the current state of the game as we know it.

Their responses were nothing short of fascinating, and I can’t thank them enough for agreeing to participate.

I’ll be posting the questions and responses in a six-part series. Here’s part two.

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Today’s panel consists of:

Jeff Sackmann, the creator of Minor League Splits, the master of Brew Crew Ball, the captain of Beyond the Boxscore, and a contributer to The Hardball Times and Heater Magazine.

SwizStick, of Condition Oakland, one of the top few Oakland sites out there. It’s also one of the longest-running ones, dating back to 2004.

HollywoodOz, who runs Notes from the Nat, a simply outstanding blog about the Vancouver Canadiens, the short-season class A club affiliated with Oakland.

baseballgirl, from Athletics Nation. I have to confess, I consistently enjoy reading her front page stories more than any other author of AN. Sorry, Blez, Nico and louismg…

Becca the Bullpen Baker, who runs the light-hearted and delicious Bullpen Baker MLBlog. It’s one of the only baseball websites that actually makes my mouth water.

Sal Baxamusa, a well-tenured member of Athletics Nation and an author of The Hardball Times. He also happens to be a chemical engineering graduate student at MIT.

Marc Normandin, the founder of Beyond the Boxscore, a contributer to Heater Magazine, and a regular author of Baseball Prospectus.

Ken Arneson, who writes Catfish Stew for the Baseball Toaster family of blogs. I’ve admired Ken’s writing for a while, and his photography is nothing to sneeze at, either.

Tyler “Blez” Bleszinski, the founder of Athletics Nation, and the guy behind all of those wonderful SBnation blogs.

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Bobby Crosby - Is he an injury-prone bust, or can he rebound to approach the Rookie of the Year expectations?

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Jeff Sackmann: Funny thing is, his rate stats in his sophomore campaign were way better than his rookie year numbers. For a quick-and-dirty way of seeing whether his ‘06 was bad luck or just bad hitting, check his strikeout and walk rates. He walked at almost exactly the same rate he did in ‘04 and ‘05. He struck out more than he did in ‘05, but quite a bit less than he did in ‘04.

With the caveat that his Rookie of the Year season wasn’t anything special, I’d say he has a good shot of regaining at least that level of performance. I wouldn’t bet on seeing him in an All-Star Game anytime soon, though.

SwizStick: Personally I have been scratching my head since his rookie season. I, among others, felt his rookie season was nothing to boast about and was puzzled to hear the praise and high expectations thrown at Crosby. He is a frustration to watch and even when healthy seems unable to adjust or learn from mistakes. I think he is a bust, not just on the injury front but as a major league prospect.

I can not figure out why the A’s front office and others are so high on him. I fully expect another injury-prone season of hot and cold performances with Marco Scutaro getting plenty of playing time. Obviously I hope Crosby proves me wrong, but he has not shown me anything yet that instills faith.

HollywoodOz: Somewhere down the middle. He’ll probably hit the DL again this year at some point, but surely it can’t be as bad as last year - I mean, seriously, who breaks their back taking a swing? I’d expect Crosby to be a good shortstop defensively, with below average offense, and a little pop. Good enough to keep a hot Scutaro out of the team, without risking improving his stats much.

Bullpen Baker: You know, sometimes when trying out a new recipe, it takes a few tries. Maybe I put in too much butter or not enough salt or realize that walnuts would taste better with dark chocolate and coconut than almonds… Wait, we’re talking about his chances of returning to “Rookie of the Year” condition, not “Cookie of the Year.” Sorry.

Barring any future misdiagnosis, I think Bobby can bounce back. He just needs a little more baking soda to get that extra lift. And when he does return to form, I’ll make him some very special gingerbread Crosby-man cookies just for the occasion. Yum!

Sal Baxamusa: Neither. If Bobby Crosby’s defense is such that he’s an asset if he could hit even for a 750 OPS. I think at his peak, which he should be approaching this year and the following few, he could easily clear an 800 OPS and be one of the better shorstops in the AL.

But the key question is his health; I’m not ready to declare him a bust quite yet, but his future would look a lot brighter if he could stay in the lineup, on the field, and out of the trainer’s room for the better part of 2007.

Marc Normandin: Crosby was a bit unlucky last year, enough that I’d be more comfortable thinking of his 2006 as .259/.328/.368 instead of the .229/.298/.338 reality thanks to some issues with his BABIP.

That said, the new “improved” line isn’t all that thrilling either; Crosby saw fewer pitches per plate appearance, and his Isolated Power dropped 79 points from his 2004 figure. His XBH% dropped to 26% after 44% and 41% 2004-2005 seasons.

Is this all because of injury? It’s a bit tough to tell, but the A’s should probably start looking for a serious backup plan in case Crosby goes down yet again.

baseballgirl: My gut feeling is that Crosby will not be the player many slated him out to be. He looks the part, but he sure doesn’t seem to have the easy, fluid swing that comes along with someone with confidence at the plate.

However, he is incredible in the field, and you would hope that someone can teach him about the dangers of sliders low and away. But since he spent most of 2006 on the bench, it’s really hard to say with any confidence that he will ever be a serviceable major league shortstop, much less a great player.

Two things need to happen: 1) Crosby needs to stop with the freak injuries. If that trend continues, he’s toast and 2) Crosby needs to learn some major league plate discipline, STAT. If those two conditions apply in 2007, look out.

However, if they don’t, the A’s are looking at Marco Scutaro’s below-average glove and bat in the everyday lineup, and the A’s are much too weak to absorb either a below-average Crosby or Scutaro in their light-hitting offense.

Ken Arneson: Well, he certainly does break a lot of bones. The good news is that having a guy who breaks a lot of bones is better than having a guy who tears a lot of ligaments.

When Crosby was a rookie, I said he reminded me of a young Matt Williams. Nice soft hands on defense, the ball jumps off the bat when he makes contact…but oh! Those sliders in the dirt!

Williams eventually did find a way to stop chasing those wrinkly pitches down and away, put things together for a few monster seasons in his peak years. I think Crosby *can* learn to lay off those pitches, and live up to those early expectations. But he better start showing it this year, or it’s probably never going to happen.

Blez: This will likely be the year that gives us that answer. Crosby is often his own worst enemy in that he plays head games with himself. He’s somewhat built in the Billy Beane from his playing days mold in that his head gets in the way of his abilities. We’ll see if he can overcome that and if he can remain healthy. If he can overcome those two things, I most definitely think he can be one of the best shortstops in baseball. But those are two very large ifs.

This entry was posted on Saturday, January 27th, 2007 at 12:01 am and is filed under Oakland A's, Games, Players, Opinion. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.