A-Rod’s Home Runs, Sparkline Style
Though I’m an A’s fan through and through, and I — like any good baseball fan — can’t stand the Yankees, I can’t help but notice and respect what Alex Rodriguez has done so far this year. Through 16 games, he’s hit 12 home runs, just two shy of the record for April. With another week of the month left, it certainly seems as if he’ll equal or break that mark.
However, don’t go forecasting 100 homers for A-Rod this season. He’s just in a hot streak. He’s been a streaky home run hitter his entire career, as shown by the sparklines below. Each mark indicates one game, with a red mark indicating how many homers he hit — the higher the bar, the more home runs. Gray is a homer-less game.
1994:
1995:
1997:
1998:
1999:
2000:
2001:
2002:
2003:
2004:
2005:
2006:
2007:
You can see that there have been many periods in his career where he’s just crushed the ball for a week or two, then gone completely cold for a dozen games. However, he’s never had a hot patch quite as good as he’s in right now. The closest he’s come to this kind of production was in mid-2002, and again in late 2003. While A-Rod probably won’t challenge the 70-homer barrier, with this hot start, Maris’ AL record 61 might be in jeopardy.
April 25th, 2007 at 10:00 am
[…] Alex Rodriguez has always been a streaky player. In every year of his career since 1996, he’s had at least one 15-game period in which he’s hit one or zero homers, and another period where he’s hit 7-10 homers over those 15 games. That being said, he hit 12 home runs over his first 15 games this season, an unprecedented rate for him. While he won’t keep up this pace—a 120 home run season—A-Rod has given himself an excellent head start on the American League home run record still held by Roger Maris. […]
April 30th, 2007 at 11:39 am
[…] Alex Rodriguez has always been a streaky player. In every year of his career since 1996, he’s had at least one 15-game period in which he’s hit one or zero homers, and another period where he’s hit 7-10 homers over those 15 games. That being said, he hit 12 home runs over his first 15 games this season, an unprecedented rate for him. While he won’t keep up this pace—a 120 home run season—A-Rod has given himself an excellent head start on the American League home run record still held by Roger Maris. […]