Over the last four quarters, over 234,000 were granted. mortgages. Compared to the previous period (i.e. from Q4 2009 to Q3 2010), this is an increase of 4.74%.
Compared to the _12-month period ended in 2011 Q2, we recorded a decrease of 2.44 percent. This was the second consecutive decline, we have previously seen increases five times in a row.
Drastic changes occurred in foreign currency loans
The most drastic changes occurred in foreign currency loans. For several months now, banks have been withdrawing from this market segment. At the turn of summer and autumn, Swiss franc loans have virtually disappeared from the market, and several institutions have given up lending in euros.
The effect of this can be seen clearly. While a year ago the share of foreign currency loans in the market was almost 21 percent, today it is only 14.5 percent. We recorded a 75% decline in the number of loans in foreign currency. surveyed banks.
Very poor end of the year
Of the twenty banks that responded to the Open Finance survey, loan sales (in numbers) increased in eleven, in one it was exactly the same, and in eight it fell. However, the decreases concerned several large institutions, which translated into a negative result of the entire market.
The first two quarters of 2011 were successful for banks granting mortgage loans because the continuation of the market boom initiated in 2010 was continued. The third quarter was much worse, a decrease of 9.18 percent. year to year is the largest decrease since Q4 2009, that is for almost two years.
The entry into force of the amendment to Recommendation S (the first part has been in force for several months, the second will enter into force at the beginning of 2012) led to a significant decrease in the number of foreign currency loans granted.
The drop in demand was also undoubtedly due to the summer fluctuations in the Swiss franc. We expect that in the following quarters we will record further declines in this field, and the share of foreign currency loans in the market may fall below 10%.
Termination of the government program
The third quarter of 2011 was probably the last good quarter in the history of the Good Finance program. At the end of August, changes in RnS came into force and already October statistics showed a decrease in the number and value of loans granted.
Compared to September, the decreases were over 30%. In the following months, the number of preferential loans granted will continue to decrease, because in September and October the result was influenced by loan applications submitted just before the changes came into force.
Due to the further activities of the Good Finance Supervision Authority aimed at limiting the availability of foreign currency loans, we uphold our forecast: the fourth quarter of 2011 will be weaker in terms of the number of loans than the same in 2010.
If the decrease is as large as in the case of Q3, the number of loans granted will amount to around 230,000 in the entire 2011, i.e. by 2-3%. less than a year ago.